In Australia’s Abatement Task and 2013 Emissions Projections at page 12 -
In Australia’s Abatement Task -"more electricity to be generated from fossil fuels""Electricity emissions growth is expected to accelerate from 2020 to 2030, with emissions projected to be 243 Mt CO 2 -e in 2030 or 23 per cent above 2012 levels. Higher emissions growth is due to increased demand for electricity that is largely met by fossil fuel generation."
Recent modelling conducted by the Treasury and the former Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (now the Department of the Environment) indicates the amount of emissions reductions required to achieve Australia’s 2020 target of 5 per cent below 2000 levels is less than previous estimates.1 This fact sheet explains how Australia’s abatement task has changed since Australia’s Emissions Projections 2012.
Australia’s abatement task is 431 Mt CO2-eAustralia’s abatement task from 2013 to 2020 has fallen from 755 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) in Australia’s Emissions Projections 2012, to 591 Mt CO2-e in modelling undertaken for the Climate Change Authority’s (CCA’s) Targets and Progress Review Draft Report.
For further information, refer to Australia’s Abatement Task and 2013 Emissions Projections. This reduction is mainly attributable to a revised outlook for activity in emissions-intensive sectors of the economy.
"Australia's abatement task reduced by the carbon tax in 2012-13 AND 2013-14."When other factors such as abatement from two years of the carbon tax and the ability to use surplus reductions achieved in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol are taken into account, Australia’s abatement task falls from 591 to 431 Mt CO2-e.
1 Year references are to financial years ending with the year specified. For example, 2013 refers to 2012-13.
Changes in Australia’s abatement task
"Australia's abatement task reduced by lower cost estimates for wind and solar."The change in Australia’s abatement task can be attributed to:
- a shift in the outlook for certain emissions-intensive industries and lower technology cost estimates especially for wind and solar technologies;
- changes from the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period including the adoption of revised global warming potentials from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report and broadened coverage of the land sector to include emissions from forest management and selected Article 3.4 activities;
- changes to the 2020 target associated with an updated inventory value for the 2000 base year;
- an adjustment for voluntary action, which was not estimated in previous projections;
- the assumed use of surplus units from the Kyoto Protocol first commitment period in the period to 2020; and
- abatement from the carbon tax and Carbon Farming Initiative in 2012-13 and 2013-14.