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Friday, December 27, 2013

erf Green Paper Surprise No 1

The Tony Abbott Coalition Government released its "Emissions Reductions Fund - Green Paper" for comment on 20 December 2013.

One surprise is revealed in three tables at pages 10 and 11.

In fact there is more than one surprise. Australia DOUBLED its Gross Domestic Product with 22 years of continuous economic growth with NO increase in emissions: Table 1.2 showing the emissions intensity of the Australian economy from 1990 - 2012.

What is a real surprise is hidden in the projected growth in emissions of the Australian economy for 2012 - 2020.
As Australia DOUBLED its Gross Domestic Product with 22 years of uninterrupted economic growth from 1990 to 2012 with NO increase in emissions, what has possessed the Australian Government to PLAN to INCREASE emissions by 85 million tonnes of CO2 a year in just 8 years to 2020?
Extra points are to be awarded for any member of Tony Abbott's government who, while answering the above question, is able to justify the cost to the taxpayer of its Direct Action policy - given that this is made far more expensive as a result of the government's own PLAN to INCREASE emissions in the next 8 years.

Without this plan to saddle the Australian economy with 85 million tonnes of ADDITIONAL emissions a year, the cost to taxpayers to CUT emissions would be A LOT LESS!

Emissions intensity of the Australian economy, 1990 - 2012

Change in emissions of the Australian economy, 2000 - 2012

Projected growth in emissions of the Australian economy, 2012 - 2020

Projected emissions growth to 2020 is dominated by direct combustion and fugitive emissions associated with the production of energy resources. The key driver of this growth is the expected strong export demand for Australia’s natural resources, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal.

An expansion in Australian coal production is projected to be the main driver of growth in fugitive emissions, as new mines are developed to meet export demand. The rapid expansion of the Australian LNG industry, which is likely to see Australia’s LNG production quadruple to 2020, is the main contributor to growth in direct combustion due to the use of natural gas to run stationary equipment at LNG facilities.