Fossil fuel energy is unreliable

Natural gas power is increasingly unreliable in Australia.

A simple law of physics explains why natural gas power stations are unreliable:

6 gigajoules of natural gas are needed to generate 3.6 gigajoules of electrical energy in a combined-cycle gas turbine power station.

Each 3.6 gigajoules of electrical energy (which is 1 megawatt-hour or 1 MWh) has a price of about $50 in the Australian Energy Market Organisation's National Electricity Market.

The natural gas used to generate this electrical energy costs about $9 per gigajoule in the Australian Energy Market Organisation's Wholesale Gas Market.

The result:

It costs about $54 for the natural gas used as fuel to generate each megawatt-hour of electricity. This has a wholesale price of only $50.

Renewables helped keep Sa powered while a fire knocked out the switching of gas generators at Torrens island. We are asked to reduce use

— Leon Byner (@LeonByner5AA) March 3, 2017

Gas-fired power fails to supply South Australia electricity.
Wind power keeps SA lights on. https://t.co/eGvQzgfSUj via @ABCNews #saparli

— Askgerbil Now (@Askgerbil) March 4, 2017

Rising domestic gas prices

In terms of production costs, over the last decade the finding and development costs for the petroleum industry have increased six-fold. And, in the three years to 2013, total Australian finding and development costs averaged $4.16/GJ, which was 2.7 times the average for the three years to 2007. These rising costs are partly explained by the fact that unconventional gas production involves significantly higher capital expenditure than that of conventional off-shore wells, given that CSG requires multiple wells to be drilled in order to access equivalent volumes of gas.

SANTOS July 2, 2015
Public Submission to ACCC East Coast Gas Inquiry

Natural Gas price in the U.S. - 1 million BTUs = 1.055 gigajoules

Liquefied natural gas #exports expected to drive growth in U.S. natural gas trade https://t.co/voUoq8kGCv #natgas #LNG #energytrade pic.twitter.com/Qt2qBvo1OC

— EIA (@EIAgov) February 22, 2017

The projected US exports of around 7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, or about 140 million tonnes of LNG is almost double the projected Australian exports of 85 million tonnes of LNG per year.

1 metric ton liquefied natural gas (LNG) = 48,700 cubic feet of natural gas.
1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas is about 20 million tonnes of LNG.

Given the much higher cost of producing coal seam gas in Australia, the ramping up of US LNG exports to 2020 is likely to bring the enthusiastic expansion of coal seam gas in Australia to a sudden end.

U.S. liquefaction capacity continues to expand https://t.co/fzDmgOPdQw #LNG #natgas #energytrade pic.twitter.com/uaOb1CNnNf

— EIA (@EIAgov) March 3, 2017

@abcnews24 No State Govt has 'gone rogue'. The LNP just doesn't get need for energy policy. Qld has added a gas reservation policy. #auspol pic.twitter.com/4u1jNMlXBZ

— Askgerbil Now (@Askgerbil) March 15, 2017