erf Green Paper Surprise No 1

The Tony Abbott Coalition Government released its "Emissions Reductions Fund - Green Paper" for comment on 20 December 2013.

One surprise is revealed in three tables at pages 10 and 11.

In fact there is more than one surprise. Australia DOUBLED its Gross Domestic Product with 22 years of continuous economic growth with NO increase in emissions: Table 1.2 showing the emissions intensity of the Australian economy from 1990 - 2012.

What is a real surprise is hidden in the projected growth in emissions of the Australian economy for 2012 - 2020.

As Australia DOUBLED its Gross Domestic Product with 22 years of uninterrupted economic growth from 1990 to 2012 with NO increase in emissions, what has possessed the Australian Government to PLAN to INCREASE emissions by 85 million tonnes of CO2 a year in just 8 years to 2020?

Extra points are to be awarded for any member of Tony Abbott's government who, while answering the above question, is able to justify the cost to the taxpayer of its Direct Action policy - given that this is made far more expensive as a result of the government's own PLAN to INCREASE emissions in the next 8 years.

Without this plan to saddle the Australian economy with 85 million tonnes of ADDITIONAL emissions a year, the cost to taxpayers to CUT emissions would be A LOT LESS!

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Projected emissions growth to 2020 is dominated by direct combustion and fugitive emissions associated with the production of energy resources. The key driver of this growth is the expected strong export demand for Australia’s natural resources, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal.

An expansion in Australian coal production is projected to be the main driver of growth in fugitive emissions, as new mines are developed to meet export demand. The rapid expansion of the Australian LNG industry, which is likely to see Australia’s LNG production quadruple to 2020, is the main contributor to growth in direct combustion due to the use of natural gas to run stationary equipment at LNG facilities.

Reducing Carbon Pollution From Power Plants

On Sept. 20, 2013, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its first steps under President Obama’s Climate Action Plan to reduce carbon pollution from power plants. Power plants are the largest stationary source of carbon pollution in the United States: about one third of all greenhouse gas pollution in the U.S. comes from the generation of electricity by power plants.

New South Wales bush fires occur more frequently

In the Clean Air Act, Congress recognized that the opportunity to build emissions controls into a source’s design is greater for new sources than for existing sources, so it laid out different approaches to set the two types of standards. Today EPA is proposing carbon pollution standards for power plants built in the future and is kicking off the process of engagement with states, stakeholders, and the public to establish carbon pollution standards for currently operating power plants.

The proposed standards for new power plants are the first uniform national limits on the amount of carbon pollution that future power plants will be allowed to emit. The proposed standards are in line with investments in clean energy technologies that are already being made in the power sector. The proposal ensures that the nation will continue to rely on a diverse mix of energy sources, including efficient natural gas, advanced coal technology, nuclear power, and renewable energy like wind and solar.

POWER PLANT CARBON POLLUTION IMPACTS PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT

• Carbon pollution stays in the atmosphere and contributes to climate change, which is one of the most significant public health challenges of our time. 
•  Unchecked carbon pollution leads to long-lasting changes in our climate, such as rising global temperatures; rising sea level; changes in weather and precipitation patterns; and changes in ecosystems, habitats and species diversity. 
• Public health risks include more heat waves and drought; worsening smog (also called ground-level ozone pollution); increasing the intensity of extreme events, like hurricanes, extreme precipitation and flooding; and increasing the range of ticks and mosquitoes, which can spread disease such as Lyme disease and West Nile virus. 
•  Our most vulnerable citizens, including children, older adults, people with heart or lung disease and people living in poverty are most at risk from the impacts of climate change.

NEW PLANTS WILL USE CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES

• This proposal will protect public health and address climate change while ensuring reliable, affordable, and clean power for American businesses and families. 
• This standard ensures that power companies investing in new fossil fuel-fired power plants – which often operate for more than 40 years – will use technologies that limit emissions of harmful carbon pollution. 
• This new proposal sets standards for different types of new power plants while maintaining a similar level of environmental protection. It reflects recent trends in the electric power sector and additional information, including the more than 2.5 million comments submitted by the public on the April 2012 proposal. 
• The proposed standards will put national limits on the amount of carbon pollution that new power plants, built in the future, are allowed to emit. The standards will minimize carbon pollution by guaranteeing reliance on advanced technologies like efficient natural gas units and efficient coal units implementing partial carbon capture and storage (CCS). 
• EPA’s rule reflects an ongoing trend in the power sector—a shift toward cleaner power plants that take advantage of modern technologies that will become the next generation of power plants. EPA’s rule ensures this progress continues. 
• Because these standards are in line with current industry investment patterns, these standards are not expected to have notable costs and are not projected to impact electricity prices or reliability. 
• U.S. Department of Energy, EPA and industry projections indicate that new power plants that are built over the next decade or more would be expected to meet these standards even in the absence of the rule.

Further reading -

U.S. Department of Energy. Coal gasification offers one of the most versatile and clean ways to convert coal into electricity, hydrogen, and other valuable energy products.

Basin Electric, through its for-profit subsidiary, Dakota Gasification Company (Dakota Gas) owns and operates the Great Plains Synfuels Plant. The Synfuels Plant is the only commercial-scale coal gasification plant in the U.S. that manufactures natural gas. It is located five miles northwest of Beulah, North Dakota.

The Coal Can Do That article "Coal-to-Gas is Off-the-Shelf Energy Solution" from February 2009 by Dr. Frank Clemente.

"EPA FACT SHEET: Reducing Carbon Pollution From Power Plants"

Coal and Natural Gas power plants

Sound advice from General Electric falls on deaf ears

The Coalition Government of Tony Abbott has published advice it requested on changing Australia's climate change policy:

Repealing the Carbon Tax - Public comments

Cleaner Environment Plan - Abbott Government

It received public comments such as:

• GE participated in the development of the Clean Energy Future package through the Multi-Party Climate Change Committee process, and GE has advocated for a market-based approach to carbon pricing internationally, including in the United States.
• Notwithstanding the Government's pledge for the Environment Minister to introduce legislation to enact the Coalition's Direct Action Plan "as soon as the carbon tax is repealed", GE would prefer the legislation to repeal the Clean Energy Future package was accompanied by the legislation for the programs to replace it.
• GE believes such a conjoined approach would minimize uncertainty in any transition to new arrangements, particularly for the complementary and bipartisan initiatives such as the Renewable Energy Target IRET), Carbon Farming Initiative and commitment to a 5% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions over 2000 levels by 2020.

The Coalition Government of Tony Abbott ignores the public comments it receives.

The Great Barrier Reef vs the Queensland State Budget

Royalty revenue 

Queensland - beautiful one day, a cesspit the next

Queensland Budget Strategy and Outlook 2013-14, page 54 

Royalty revenue grew strongly between 2000-01 and 2007-08, with growth in revenue in excess of 50% in both 2004-05 and 2005-06. In contrast to the other key discretionary revenues, royalty revenues reached a peak in 2008-09, as record coal prices had been contracted prior to the onset of the global financial crisis. Royalty revenue then fell significantly in 2009-10, along with coal contract prices, and has not yet returned to the levels of 2008-09.

Royalty revenue is estimated to have declined in 2012-13, primarily due to the current weakness in coal prices and high A$-US$ exchange rate. However,

• royalties are expected to recover from 2013-14 onwards, 
• supported by steady growth in export volumes, 
• a recovery in coal prices and 
• the exchange rate depreciating. 

The average growth rates projected across the forward estimates are still substantially lower than experienced during the 2000s, which was driven by sharp increases in price to a greater extent than volume growth.

Ignore greenies on reef dredging: Qld govt

December 12, 2013 (news.com.au)

Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney says activists will say anything to shut down the coal industry.

He says the public shouldn't be fooled by their "alarmist" response to the Abbot Point dredging project.

The federal government this week gave the green light for the massive project to expand the coal terminal in north Queensland.

The approval allows about three million cubic metres of dredge spoil to be dumped in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park.

Tony Abbott is Afraid of Innovation

TONY ABBOTT - ADDRESS TO THE NATIONAL PRESS CLUB
2 SEPTEMBER 2013

"The carbon tax will reduce Australia’s domestic coal use from over 70 per cent of our power needs to under 10 per cent, absent carbon capture and storage.

The Australian coal industry will only survive because the Chinese, without a carbon tax, will do what we are no longer supposed to do: namely buy and burn coal.

Australia’s biggest export industry will only endure because others will do what we think we should no longer do ourselves."

TONY ABBOTT - ADDRESS TO THE NATIONAL PRESS CLUB
28 MAY 2014

"It’s particularly important that we do not demonise the coal industry.

If there was one fundamental problem, above all else, with the carbon tax was that it said to our people, it said to the wider world, that a commodity which in many years is our biggest single export, somehow should be left in the ground and not sold.

Well really and truly, I can think of few things more damaging to our future."

Meanwhile, in news from the real world:

China to ban new coal-fired power plants around Beijing over pollution concerns

BEIJING | 12 September 2013 | China announced Thursday that it will ban new coal-fired power plants in three key industrial regions around Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou in its latest bid to combat the country's notorious air pollution.
(Read more ...)

U.S. lays out strict limits on coal funding abroad

By Anna Yukhananov
WASHINGTON | 29 October 2013 | (Reuters) | The United States said Tuesday it plans to use its leverage within global development banks to limit financing for coal-fired power plants abroad as part of Washington's international strategy to combat climate change.
(Read more ...)

UK urges global climate deal, halt to funding for overseas coal-fired power

London (Platts) | 20 November 2013
COMPLETELY ILLOGICAL

"It is completely illogical for countries like the UK and the US to be decarbonizing our own energy sectors while paying for coal-fired power plants to be built in other countries," UK energy and climate change secretary Ed Davey said.

The UK will also join the US in agreeing to end support for public financing of new coal-fired power plants overseas, "except in rare circumstances in which the poorest countries have no feasible alternative," Davey said.

When burned, coal emits roughly twice the volume of carbon dioxide per unit of energy produced than natural gas -- putting coal-fired power plants in the firing line for governments and regulators seeking meaningful emissions reductions.

The UK and US will work together to secure the support of other countries and Multilateral Development Banks to adopt similar policies, Davey said.
(Read more ...)

UK puts brakes on coal fired power plants

“As part of our commitment to accelerating the transition to low-carbon energy systems worldwide, the leaders of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden will join the United States in ending public financing for new coal-fired power plants overseas, except in rare circumstances. We will work together to secure the support of other countries and multilateral development banks to adopt similar policies.”
(Read more ...)

China set for carbon pricing: new study

ASIA & THE PACIFIC | 10 October 2013 | As Australia moves to scrap its pioneering carbon-pricing scheme, China is expected to have seven pilot pricing systems in place no later than 2015, followed by a national scheme, according to a new survey from ANU.

The survey – a joint initiative between the Centre for Climate Economics and Policy in the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific’s Crawford School and Beijing-based NGO China Carbon Forum – collected the opinions of 86 China-based carbon pricing experts.

The survey found strong confidence that China will introduce carbon-pricing mechanisms in coming years, that the price of emitting carbon will rise over time, and that China will have both a national emissions trading and a carbon tax by the end of the decade.
(Read more ...)

Tony Abbott - afraid of a price on carbon

Mining products that endanger human health

Long before propaganda sponsored by the coal mining lobby that climate change is a scam....

"Although the health risks associated with asbestos had been long observed and were confirmed scientifically early in the Twentieth Century, it was not until the 1970s that the Australian community was made aware of the problem.
Each year 500 men and 100 women develop mesothelioma in Australia, and this is expected to rise to 900 new cases a year by 2020.
As former workers in environments contaminated by asbestos began to fall sick and die in ever increasing numbers, a series of cases put before Australian courts after 1980 established a precedent for civil damages to be awarded to sufferers of asbestos related diseases." (National Health and Medical Research Council).

"Australia has the second highest rate of asbestos-related cancer deaths in the world." (The Mesothelioma Center)

Worryingly current estimates suggest about 2,500 Aussies are diagnosed with #asbestos related disease each year - http://t.co/B9Nwl4FjSG
— Cancer Council NSW (@CancerCouncil) January 15, 2014

Product liability: CSR Limited and/or certain subsidiaries (CSR) were involved in mining asbestos and manufacturing and marketing products containing asbestos in Australia, and exporting asbestos to the United States.

CSR’s involvement in asbestos mining, and the manufacture of products containing asbestos, began in the early 1940s and ceased with the disposition of the Wunderlich asbestos cement business in 1977.

As a result of these activities, CSR has been named as a defendant in litigation in Australia and the United States.

In Australia, asbestos related personal injury claims have been made by employees and ex-employees of CSR, by others such as contractors and transporters and by users of products containing asbestos, as well as residents of and visitors to Wittenoom. As at 30 September 2013, there were 479 such claims pending.

In the United States, claims are made by people who allege exposure to asbestos fibre used in the manufacture of products containing asbestos or in the installation or use of those products. As at 30 September 2013, there were 690 such claims pending.

CSR has been settling claims since 1989. As at 30 September 2013, CSR had resolved approximately 3,571 claims in Australia and approximately 136,421 claims in the United States.

As at 30 September 2013 a provision of $397.8 million has been made for all known claims and reasonably foreseeable future claims.

Forensic experts work on a mass grave with more than 700 bodies of victims of Typhoon Haiyan 

Independent.ie

Bureau of Meteorology Interactive Forecast Maps

2014 will begin very hot over parts of Australia, as a band of intense heat sweeps across the nation putting records in serious danger with temperatures likely to near 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) in parts. (weatherzone)

Emissions Reduction Handouts

The Coalition Government has a plan.

It is full of hope.

No facts are available.

The Coalition Government intends to repeal the Clean Energy Future legislation BEFORE any details of its replacement legislation have been written.

Update, 18 December 2013 - Direct Action Plan in tatters
Today Tony Abbott said "We've got to accept though that in the changed circumstances of today the renewable energy target is causing pretty significant price pressure in the system."

Not too long ago Tony Abbott proclaimed that the carbon tax was THE cause of energy price pressures. When pressed at an interview he could not think any other policy measure to limit rising energy prices. (See his interview with Lisa Wilkinson on 14 November 2012: Abbott: The Man without a Plan )

Just 100 days ago Tony Abbott went to an election with his Direct Action Plan.
In that plan he said: "Our goal is for one million additional solar energy roofs on homes by 2020, including either solar power or solar water heating systems.

To achieve the goal of one million additional solar energy roofs by 2020, the Coalition will provide an extra $1000 rebate for either solar panels or solar hot water systems. The program would be capped at 100,000 rebates per year and would therefore be capped at a total cost of $100 million per year."

Key Dates
Release of Emissions Reduction Fund Terms of Reference	16 October 2013
Submissions due in response to Terms of Reference	18 November 2013
Release of Green Paper	December 2013
Release of White Paper and Exposure Draft legislation	Early 2014
Commencement of Emissions Reduction Fund	1 July 2014

The Coalition Government claims it is committed to reducing Australia’s emissions by 5 per cent from 2000 levels by the year 2020.

Legislation to repeal the carbon tax [sic, Clean Energy Future legislation] is the first Bill it has brought before the new parliament. 

In place of the carbon tax, the Government will give handouts (institute incentives) for businesses, farmers, households and other entities to invest in technologies that it hopes will reduce our emissions at lowest cost.

Direct Action handouts - socialism disguised as environmentalism

The Government is hoping this Direct Action Plan will efficiently and effectively source low cost emissions reductions that will contribute towards our 2020 target.

The Government has on 18 November 2013 completed receipt of submissions on the design of the Emissions Reduction Fund, the centrepiece of the Direct Action Plan. 

Emissions Reduction Fund 

The Emissions Reduction Fund will commence operations on 1 July 2014, after the repeal of the carbon tax, and will be designed to purchase low cost abatement. 

The Government sought business and community views from 16 October to 18 November 2013 on the design of the Emissions Reduction Fund including:

• the likely sources of low cost, large scale abatement to come forward under the Emissions Reduction Fund;
• how the Emissions Reduction Fund can facilitate the development of abatement projects, including through expanding the Carbon Farming Initiative and drawing on the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Scheme;
• the details of auction arrangements to deliver cost effective outcomes;
• the governance arrangements that will support the Emissions Reduction Fund, including the role of key institutions such as the Clean Energy Regulator; 
• the details of the monitoring, verification, compliance and payments arrangements for successful bidders at auction;
• transitional issues relating to the existing Carbon Farming Initiative; and
• the design and operation of a mechanism applying to emissions above the business as usual baseline.